As summer for the northern hemisphere approaches, so does the peak travel season for most tourist hot spots, and there’s more trouble on the horizon for air travelers. Some of it can be planned around, to a degree, and some of it can’t.
Cancelled Cruises and Tours
There’s already been quite a bit written about the impact of cancelled flights in the Middle East due to the war against Iran, including my own. Thousands of travelers were stranded in the region with carriers working to re-route their travel plans through other airports if the airlines could fly at all. Even U.S. Embassies were telling U.S. citizens that they were unable to help get them home.
What hasn’t been covered as much (and, indeed, it is far less important) is that there have been cruise companies cancelling cruises in the region. Viking, one of the largest cruise companies in the world, cancelled Nile river cruises until the 12th of March, which is a duration of not quite two weeks.
MSC Cruises cancelled sailings in the Arabian Gulf through the end of March and AmaWaterways made a similar move and suspended operations in Jordan and Dubai through the end of this month. Tauk land tours has also suspended their operations in multiple countries in the region, including Egypt, Jordan, and Isreal.
It is safe to assume that if you are a tour operator or cruise line working in the Middle East region, this war has stopped your business. At this time, most companies are indicating that they are resuming operations in April but, if the war continues, escalates, or expands, additional cancellations should be expected.
Spinking Fuel Costs
As drivers around the world are noting this week, fuel costs are increasing and, in some areas, the prices are skyrocketing. This is in direct response to the war on Iran and the disruptions it has caused. Since we are a travel agency, we see the cost of flights quite regularly and we’ve seen sharp increases even in a 24-hour period. Just today, we saw a $50 increase in price on a flight from the day before, which was a near 10% increase. The flight is in December.
Airlines feel the same squeeze motorists do at the pump, but the major carriers buy a lot more fuel than we do and they buy it using a lot of different mechanisms. They are, of course, passing the increased cost onto passengers right now. The price of your ticket is, at least in part, based on the current cost of fuel. Since the price of oil is increasing, we’re going to be paying more to fly.
Buying tickets now may save you money. It also may not. Given that the cause of the increase is a war, and war is unpredictable, we may see prices go back down fairly quickly or they may continue to rise. This is something that we cannot fully plan for.
Summer Delays in Europe
Not all the bad news is from the war, some of it is from new policy implementation. This summer, the European Commission is expected to fully implement their European Travel Information and Authorization System (ETIAS). The new system requires travelers from countries that do not need visas, like from the U.S., to obtain an electronic travel authorization (ETA) before they leave on their flight.
Air travel problems are something we simply cannot avoid it seems.
The U.K. recently implemented a similar process, which I wrote about. The ETIAS system will have a fee of €20 with exemptions for under 18 and over 70. The ETA will, typically, remain valid for three years or until the passport expires.
The potential problems with this new system are the expected ones, namely ensuring that travelers register. If a passenger fails to get an ETA, they may be denied entry to the country and congest customs lines. That’s not the only thing that could go wrong, however. Systems failures, understaffing, unfamiliarity, and lack of training of agents can also contribute to delays.
This new system could cause hours of delays in entry for travelers. That could mean missed flights, tours, or hotel rooms.
What Can You Do?
Right now, I wouldn’t plan a trip this year to the Middle East. Egypt is likely safe, but everywhere east of it is going to be a problem. If the itinerary to your destination travels through airspace in the Middle East or stops at one of the airports in the region, I wouldn’t book that right now. No matter what you do, if your travels go anywhere near the region, I recommend that you get some sort of travel insurance.
If you need to book a flight, book it soon or wait it out and hope for oil prices to fall. There’s not really another option here, just choose whichever you feel best about.
Traveling to Europe likely won’t be that much of a challenge, but I would still plan for a delay. I’ve gone through European customs enough times to know that it’s not always the smoothest. I recall a customs line in Amsterdam with clerks shouting over the crowd to try and get info from passengers in an effort to triage the throngs of people awaiting entry. It… Well… It wasn’t great. We had a tight layover and they actually held the plane for us, something I’d never seen before or since.
If you leave yourself time, at least 3 hours between connections or other obligations, you should be safe.
